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The 2002
mid-term elections may signal the beginning of a national conservative
trend that could influence the makeup of Congress for the better part of
a generation, according to sources at a November gathering of
conservative leaders in South Florida. Sponsored by the Center for the
Study of Popular Culture, the gathering featured panelists including
national figures in media, government, politics, business, and the
entertainment industry. Among other things, the group analyzed the
significance of the shift in U.S. Senate control from liberal to
conservative, and the further solidification of conservative control in
the House of Representatives.
According to one Republican Party leader, the November elections show
that the public is beginning to move away from the razor-thin 50%-50%
division of the 2000 presidential election, and to move incrementally
toward conservatism, a trend that is expected to continue. The panelists
attributed this movement to a combination of presidential leadership,
relevance of message, and negative reaction to the left’s apparent
devotion to reflexive criticism and divisiveness as an end unto itself,
even when clearly inappropriate.
“President Bush focused on issues of real importance to the general
public, with substance, and in an extremely businesslike manner,” said
one panelist, a Republican leader. Said another, a television news
commentator: “Few liberals understand how 9-11 changed America;
dramatic events cause dramatic political change. The big issue in the
U.S. is security. People want to feel protected, and liberals were
perceived as interfering with the President’s strong and decisive
leadership in this area.”
Another panelist, the leader of a tax reform organization, analyzed the
elections from a sociological point of view. “Given the state of the
economy, this election should have been tougher for conservatives than
it was,” he said. “But there are 6 demographic trends among likely
voters that indicate a general movement toward conservatism and explain
the elections’ outcome: a growing investor class, a growing class of
conservative youth, declining union membership, increased gun ownership
and concealed carry permitting, increased home schooling, and a decrease
in the number of government workers.”
In parts of New Jersey, the 2002 elections held out signs of the start
of conservative trending as well. The strong victory of Congressman
Scott Garrett over Anne Summers in the 5th Congressional District
race–particularly in traditionally liberal Bergen County–shook up
the liberal establishment throughout the state. If that trend continues,
Mr. Lautenberg and many others like him may indeed have something to
fear come election days of the future.
—Scott L. Bach
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